Friday, November 9, 2007

Trade What You See (Was that an 800 pound Gorilla?)

One essential skill in trading to develop is to be in tune with what the market is doing. This sounds simple in theory. This one skill can be responsible for success or failure in trading. This comes down to beliefs a trader has. If a trader has beliefs that the market is going to go up,as an example, then they will filter all information to support that belief, regardless of what the market is actually doing.

I have heard of traders blowing out of accounts due to beliefs like this. They just can not seem to "see" the real information the market is conveying. If they had it would not have been possible to blow out an account.

I saw a fascinating film that was shown to 200 people in a room. The moderator said before the film that there were two basketball teams, one in white and one in black. We were to focus only on the team in white and count how many times the basketball was passed between the players.

Everyone focused intently on getting the count correct. After the film, about 3 minutes, we were asked how many passes. The answers ranged from 8-20. Even with that you wonder how so many people saw it so differently. Then we were asked to watch it again with the same instructions. This time many people changed their counts. Then we were asked to watch the same film one last time except we were asked if anyone saw the "Gorilla", yes, Gorilla. The film was played again and lo and behold a large guy in a gorilla suit had walked through the center of the court, stopped, pounded his chest, and then walked off.

No one saw this the first viewing! Sounds incredible doesn't it, but this shows you the power of our brains when we are locked into believing something, we just do not see or hear all the information, everything is filtered to support our beliefs.

Next time you struggle with the markets, look back on the charts when your mind is clear and fresh and see if there wasn't an 800 pound gorilla that walked across your screen!

Leslie

No comments: